Antique market trends: Victorian styles are out, 1940s and '50s are in
Link
Victorian marble top furniture is out and vintage accessories are in.
In truth, there isn't much that is truly "in" in the antiques market. Like most retail categories, antiques have moved slowly in recent years. At the same time, the market is experiencing a generational shift, moving from the very old to the relatively new to accommodate a younger collector.
"People want what's comfortable, and the 1930s, '40s and '50s styles are what they saw in their grandmothers' homes," says Malcolm Anglin, a certified appraiser for Return Engagements in Phoebus.
"Shoppers, especially the younger ones just coming into the antiques and vintage market, are looking for those bright colors and unique pieces of the '50s and even the '60s."
Combined, the economic situation and trend toward mid-century modern pieces has created an interesting dynamic within local antique shops, where shoppers will see a mishmash of items for both the established collector and the entry-level buyer.
It also means there are plenty of bargains to go around.
"Items that are priced around $1,000 have been hit the hardest, because that's where the beginner collectors start," says Rick Griffin, owner of Griffin's Antiques in Phoebus. "Typically, people who would be in that category have less expendable income right now than they would have in the past."
And that's where you're likely to find a bargain, says Lark Mason, Jr., an appraiser for the PBS show "Antiques Roadshow."
He says that shoppers should look for deals on decorative English, American and European furniture, a category that's trouble for antique dealers because mass market retailers can reproduce the styles so easily.
Locally, mahogany pieces are best sellers in that category, says Anglin.
"The days of the Victorian marble top are gone," he says. "Mahogany pieces have that feel of quality and comfort, and they just match with everything you already have."
To make sure you get quality furniture, Anglin suggests opening all of the drawers. The best pieces will be made entirely of wood. Details such as dovetail joints — a way of interlocking wood so that mechanical fasteners are not needed — also indicate quality. The piece should be fairly heavy, as well, though some faux wood pieces can be extremely heavy, says Anglin.
If you're on the opposite end of the market as a seller — you've inherited an estate, for example — there are several categories where you can still collect a good portion of an item's value.
Of course, tried and true fine art works are considered good investments and have retained their value. Post-war artists are more popular right now, so you're likely to find a buyer quickly.
Fine jewelry and vintage pieces also retain their value in a stunted economy, because even non-collectors feel that precious metals are a secure investment.
At Return Engagements, Bakelite bracelets from the 1930s are popular with customers. The brightly colored jewelry is made from industrial plastic, and the pieces range in price from $45 to $1,400.
Tiffany and Carnival glass pieces also are hot sellers, as are wooden wall clocks.
But if you're hoping to get top dollar for your great-uncle's collection of antique kitchen gadgets, you may want to hold onto it for a couple of years while the market adjusts.
"It's a very exciting time for people who are interested in becoming collectors," says Mason. "The cost is at one of the lowest levels it has been for generations."
What's the difference?
An item that is 100 years old or older
Vintage:
An item that is less than 100 years old
Estate:
An item that was previously owned
How to research antiques
Experts agree that now is a good time to start collecting if you are able. Here are some Web sites that can help you determine how much an item is worth, whether you're buying or selling.
• Sothebys.com. The international auction house has a large database of recently sold items and items for sale. You can browse items by category to find specific antiques and their selling prices.
• Christies.com. This fine art and antiques auction house also has a large database of recently sold items and items for sale.
• igavel.com. Founded by Lark Mason Jr., an appraiser for the PBS show "Antiques Roadshow," igavel is an online auction house. You can search the database for sale items to get an idea of common prices.
"Ebay is no longer a good measuring tool," Mason says. "Anybody with anything of real value isn't using the site anymore."
• Artfact.com. The site offers the selling prices for items sold at auctions over the past year.
• Certified appraisers. Experts agree that your best bet is to use a professional appraiser. You can find one through the Appraisers Association of America, American Society of Appraisers or the International Society of Appraisers. Malcolm Anglin of Return Engagements in Phoebus will give you an estimate on your estate for free.
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
Sunday, January 17, 2010
Article - Reprint
http://www.antique-hq.com/where-to-sell-your-antiques-and-collectibles-1226
I get asked this question all the time. There are many options when it comes to selling your antiques and collectibles. Choosing an option all comes down to your personal circumstances.
In this article I have covered the most common ways to sell your antiques and collectibles. You can use this information as a guide to help you when making the choice of where to sell your items.
Private Sale:
Private sale is when you negotiate a sell between you and other parties. This can be done by yourself or through a broker. If you choose this option I would suggest using a broker. Brokers usually have a network of buyers and they also know how to negotiate in these situations on your behalf.
What types of antiques and collectibles should you sell this way?
You can sell any type of antique or collectible this way, however this works best rare or high-end antiques and collectibles.
Pros:
* You know where your antique or collectible is going. Some people specify that they want an item only to be sold to a collector, museum, or to someone that will not just resell it. This can be controlled in this situation.
* This option also allows you to take your time and negotiate.
Cons:
* You are limiting your items exposure; this can cause less interest in your item resulting in lower values (but not in all cases).
* You have to put in a lot of time going back and forth trying to make all parties happy in the deal.
* If you use a broker you will have to pay him a fee. This is usually a percentage of the sale.
* You will have to deal with shipping and refunds if the other party is not happy.
Other factors to consider:
* Time: In most cases private sales can take a long time. If you are looking to sell your item fast this is not the option for you (in most cases).
Remember: Even if you use a broker make sure to do your research. As much as I would love to say all brokers are honest, this unfortunately not always the case. The best way to protect yourself against a broker trying to get a good deal for his friend is to arm yourself with knowledge.
Auction:
I recommend auctions the most. This is a good all around way to sell your antiques and collectibles.
What type of antiques and collectibles can be sold at auction?
Anything can be sold at auction as long as it is not an illegal item or restricted item (e.g. endangered animal items.).
I would highly suggest using an auction house for any rare, high-end or medium range items. If you need help finding an auction house please read the following two articles.
* United States
* Australia
Pros:
* Your items are well advertised. This is usually done by catalogues, flyers or brochures that are mailed to the auction house mailing list. Most auction houses list their items on the internet as well.
* They have a large buyer base.
* There are experts there to value your items and help you with any information you may need.
* They take care of the shipping, handling and any refunds (refunds do not happen very often.).
* You can set a reserve price.
Cons:
This option is usually faster then a privet sell but can still take 2-4 weeks minimum. This depends on the auction schedule and if you have to wait for a specialty auction. This can sometimes as long 3 months to 6 months.
* Your items may go unsold. When this happens your items are either returned to you or relisted in the next appropriate auction.
* There is usually a seller’s fee; the average fee is 10-20%. This fee can go as high as 50%. You can read more about this in one of my earlier post Finding the Right Auction House to Sell Your Antiques.
* There can be extra costs such as transportation fees, photograph fees, reserve fees, and buyback fees if the item is unsold because of a reserve.
Consignment:
Consignment is when you put your item up for sale in a store to be sold for you. Many antique stores will take an item on consignment instead of out right buying the item. Once the item is sold you are then paid for the item minus the consignment fees. This fee is usually 10-30%.
What type of antiques and collectibles can be sold this way?
Usually mid to high end antiques and collectibles can be sold on consignment. In some stores they will take lower valueitems, but charge a higher consignment fee.
Pros:
* By having your items in a store setting you are insuring that the customer is a targeted buyer. This means the buyers are there to buy antiques and collectibles.
* Your help out your local antique store.
Cons:
* When an item is consigned it may take a long time to sell.
* You are limiting your market to the people that come into the store.
* You have to pay a consignment fee.
Remember: I can not stress this enough. Make sure to do your research. Even when an item is on consignment you have to put the price on the item. You don’t want to under sell your item or price it too high.
Yard Sale/Garage Sale:
I only have one thing to say about this option DO NOT DO IT. You will not get the value for the item. When I was working in the auction house we would always have people come in and say somthing like: “On my way here I stopped at a garage sale and picked this up for $12.00. Can you tell me what its worth?” In this case it was a Missen stein worth $1200.00.
Online Auction (eBay):
Since the 1990’s eBay has became a popular way to sell items. I tend not to use eBay and do not suggest eBay very often.
What type of antiques and collectibles can be sold here?
All types of antiques and collectibles can be sold here. I would not suggest selling and rare of high-end items on eBay, with these items I would suggest using an auctions house.
Pros:
* You can sell your items fast.
* You are paid for your items right away.
* You have a world wide buyer base. More people will see your item here. But this also causes the common market to get flooded, lowering the value of some items.
* There are many payment options
Cons:
* In most cases items sell for well under value.
* You have to deal with questions, shipping, refunds and people not paying.
* Some items are hard to sell because people see them as fakes even if they are not.
* Everyone is looking for that deal and expect to find it.
* You have listing fees and have to pay a % of the sell to eBay (last time I checked it was 6%)
* If your item does not sell and you relist it you have to pay the fee again.
Tip: Research research research. This is the only way to protect yourself.
Online Antique Stores:
An online antique store is a lot like a brick and mortar antique store (consignment). The only difference is you have the whole world as your customer base. I do recommend these types of stores occasionally.
What type of antiques and collectibles can be sold here?
This all depends on the store. If it is a specialty store it will be limited to the type of items they sell. This is a good way to sell things like Hummels, jewelry, and smaller collectibles.
Pros:
* By having your items in a online store setting you are insuring that the customer is a targeted buyer. This means the buyers are there to buy antiques and collectibles.
* Your customer base is world wide.
* You do not have to take your item to a store. In most cases you just need a good picture of the item, price and a discription.
Cons:
* When an item is consigned it may take a long time to sell.
* You are limiting your market to the people that come into the store.
* You have to pay a consignment fee.
One store I like to recommend is Ruby Lane. I have not personally used them but have heard good things about them.
If you have an online store you would like to recommend or a question feel free to leave a comment below.
* Share/Save/Bookmark
Similar Titles That You May Like
* Michael Jackson’s Collection to be auctioned in Beverly Hills California
* M.I. Hummel Figurines and Collectibles Value Chart – Hummel Price Guide
* Estate Sales: What you should know about them
* Best Antique Auction Houses in Australia
* Antique Appraisal – How to Appraise Antiques and Collectibles Like a Pro
I get asked this question all the time. There are many options when it comes to selling your antiques and collectibles. Choosing an option all comes down to your personal circumstances.
In this article I have covered the most common ways to sell your antiques and collectibles. You can use this information as a guide to help you when making the choice of where to sell your items.
Private Sale:
Private sale is when you negotiate a sell between you and other parties. This can be done by yourself or through a broker. If you choose this option I would suggest using a broker. Brokers usually have a network of buyers and they also know how to negotiate in these situations on your behalf.
What types of antiques and collectibles should you sell this way?
You can sell any type of antique or collectible this way, however this works best rare or high-end antiques and collectibles.
Pros:
* You know where your antique or collectible is going. Some people specify that they want an item only to be sold to a collector, museum, or to someone that will not just resell it. This can be controlled in this situation.
* This option also allows you to take your time and negotiate.
Cons:
* You are limiting your items exposure; this can cause less interest in your item resulting in lower values (but not in all cases).
* You have to put in a lot of time going back and forth trying to make all parties happy in the deal.
* If you use a broker you will have to pay him a fee. This is usually a percentage of the sale.
* You will have to deal with shipping and refunds if the other party is not happy.
Other factors to consider:
* Time: In most cases private sales can take a long time. If you are looking to sell your item fast this is not the option for you (in most cases).
Remember: Even if you use a broker make sure to do your research. As much as I would love to say all brokers are honest, this unfortunately not always the case. The best way to protect yourself against a broker trying to get a good deal for his friend is to arm yourself with knowledge.
Auction:
I recommend auctions the most. This is a good all around way to sell your antiques and collectibles.
What type of antiques and collectibles can be sold at auction?
Anything can be sold at auction as long as it is not an illegal item or restricted item (e.g. endangered animal items.).
I would highly suggest using an auction house for any rare, high-end or medium range items. If you need help finding an auction house please read the following two articles.
* United States
* Australia
Pros:
* Your items are well advertised. This is usually done by catalogues, flyers or brochures that are mailed to the auction house mailing list. Most auction houses list their items on the internet as well.
* They have a large buyer base.
* There are experts there to value your items and help you with any information you may need.
* They take care of the shipping, handling and any refunds (refunds do not happen very often.).
* You can set a reserve price.
Cons:
This option is usually faster then a privet sell but can still take 2-4 weeks minimum. This depends on the auction schedule and if you have to wait for a specialty auction. This can sometimes as long 3 months to 6 months.
* Your items may go unsold. When this happens your items are either returned to you or relisted in the next appropriate auction.
* There is usually a seller’s fee; the average fee is 10-20%. This fee can go as high as 50%. You can read more about this in one of my earlier post Finding the Right Auction House to Sell Your Antiques.
* There can be extra costs such as transportation fees, photograph fees, reserve fees, and buyback fees if the item is unsold because of a reserve.
Consignment:
Consignment is when you put your item up for sale in a store to be sold for you. Many antique stores will take an item on consignment instead of out right buying the item. Once the item is sold you are then paid for the item minus the consignment fees. This fee is usually 10-30%.
What type of antiques and collectibles can be sold this way?
Usually mid to high end antiques and collectibles can be sold on consignment. In some stores they will take lower valueitems, but charge a higher consignment fee.
Pros:
* By having your items in a store setting you are insuring that the customer is a targeted buyer. This means the buyers are there to buy antiques and collectibles.
* Your help out your local antique store.
Cons:
* When an item is consigned it may take a long time to sell.
* You are limiting your market to the people that come into the store.
* You have to pay a consignment fee.
Remember: I can not stress this enough. Make sure to do your research. Even when an item is on consignment you have to put the price on the item. You don’t want to under sell your item or price it too high.
Yard Sale/Garage Sale:
I only have one thing to say about this option DO NOT DO IT. You will not get the value for the item. When I was working in the auction house we would always have people come in and say somthing like: “On my way here I stopped at a garage sale and picked this up for $12.00. Can you tell me what its worth?” In this case it was a Missen stein worth $1200.00.
Online Auction (eBay):
Since the 1990’s eBay has became a popular way to sell items. I tend not to use eBay and do not suggest eBay very often.
What type of antiques and collectibles can be sold here?
All types of antiques and collectibles can be sold here. I would not suggest selling and rare of high-end items on eBay, with these items I would suggest using an auctions house.
Pros:
* You can sell your items fast.
* You are paid for your items right away.
* You have a world wide buyer base. More people will see your item here. But this also causes the common market to get flooded, lowering the value of some items.
* There are many payment options
Cons:
* In most cases items sell for well under value.
* You have to deal with questions, shipping, refunds and people not paying.
* Some items are hard to sell because people see them as fakes even if they are not.
* Everyone is looking for that deal and expect to find it.
* You have listing fees and have to pay a % of the sell to eBay (last time I checked it was 6%)
* If your item does not sell and you relist it you have to pay the fee again.
Tip: Research research research. This is the only way to protect yourself.
Online Antique Stores:
An online antique store is a lot like a brick and mortar antique store (consignment). The only difference is you have the whole world as your customer base. I do recommend these types of stores occasionally.
What type of antiques and collectibles can be sold here?
This all depends on the store. If it is a specialty store it will be limited to the type of items they sell. This is a good way to sell things like Hummels, jewelry, and smaller collectibles.
Pros:
* By having your items in a online store setting you are insuring that the customer is a targeted buyer. This means the buyers are there to buy antiques and collectibles.
* Your customer base is world wide.
* You do not have to take your item to a store. In most cases you just need a good picture of the item, price and a discription.
Cons:
* When an item is consigned it may take a long time to sell.
* You are limiting your market to the people that come into the store.
* You have to pay a consignment fee.
One store I like to recommend is Ruby Lane. I have not personally used them but have heard good things about them.
If you have an online store you would like to recommend or a question feel free to leave a comment below.
* Share/Save/Bookmark
Similar Titles That You May Like
* Michael Jackson’s Collection to be auctioned in Beverly Hills California
* M.I. Hummel Figurines and Collectibles Value Chart – Hummel Price Guide
* Estate Sales: What you should know about them
* Best Antique Auction Houses in Australia
* Antique Appraisal – How to Appraise Antiques and Collectibles Like a Pro
Friday, December 4, 2009
Thursday, December 3, 2009
Saturday, November 14, 2009
The Antique Ecconomic Situation
Reprint from another artical.
Rinker On Collectibles: New Lessons – The Impact of the 2008/2009 Economic Crisis
in
Vintage Collectibles
September 10, 2009 - 4:08pm
When did the twenty-first century officially begin—January 1, 2000 or January 1, 2001? The great debate of ten years ago has reached “who cares” status. As a 2000 proponent, I am happy to see the null/naught decade end and the tens decade begin.
As the null/naught decade concludes, the antiques and collectibles trade is once again in survival mode, a far cry from the tentative optimism as the decade began. The trade required five years to adapt to the 1988-1989 economic downturn. The calm was short-lived. EBay’s arrival on Labor Day weekend 1995 caused a seismic eruption whose shockwaves radiated through the trade for almost a decade. As the twenty-first century began, the trade accepted eBay as a long-term player, recognized its positive benefits outweighed its negatives, and incorporated it as part of the industry’s business model.
The antiques and collectibles community enjoyed a buoyant mood as 2008 began. Sellers at antiques malls, shops, shows and flea markets reduced asking prices to the point where they were competitive and even cheaper than eBay. Attendance increased at sale venues. Auction prices were strong. While the number of collectors in many collecting categories continued to decrease, individuals buying for decorating and reuse purposes increased. Antiques and collectibles became part of the environmental movement.
Although a final judgment is ten or more years in the future, the 2008/2009 economic crisis appears to be having a greater impact on the antiques and collectibles trade than any previous event. The trade adapted to eBay in less than a decade. Its adjustment to the 2008/2009 economic crisis will take much longer.
[Author’s Note #1: I was tempted to use recover/recovery rather than adapt/adjustment in the two previous sentences. Since recover and recovery often imply a return to the status quo, I rejected them. The impact of the 2008/2009 economic crisis on the antiques and collectibles trade makes change inevitable. The good news is that the antiques and collectibles trade is resilient, a survivor. It will adapt and adjust. It will exist in 2020, 2050, and beyond. Whether the change required for survival is good, bad, or indifferent remains to be determined.]
A review of the lessons learned from the 1988/1989 economic downturn is necessary to understand the enormous impact of the lessons the 2008/2009 economic crisis is teaching. The general rule prior to the 1988/1989 economic downturn was that when stock values were high, antiques and collectibles values were low. Investors abandoned stocks and bought tangibles during difficult economic times. Antiques, viewed as tangible goods, benefited from this mindset.
[Author’s Note #2: Starting in the mid-1970s the value of antiques began to increase at a rate far in excess of inflation and stock growth. Investors viewed antiques as speculative commodities. When short-term investors sold in the late 1980s, losses far outnumbered gains. This added to the malaise in the antiques and collectibles market at the time.
The collectibles market was still in its infancy in the 1980s. Investors did not view high-end collectibles as a commodity on par with antiques until the late 1990s.]
Stock prices remained strong during the 1988/1989 economic downturn, a surprise to economists as well as those in the antiques and collectibles industry. Anticipated new capital did not flow down into the antiques and collectibles market.
The major lesson learned from the 1988/1989 economic downturn was that an object could price itself out of the market. Sellers assumed there was no limit to an object’s worth. As a result, many transactions were dealer to dealer sales rather than to individuals who removed the objects from the marketplace for a period of time. The answer to “is the winner the person who sells an object and has the money or the person who pays a price he will not recover in his lifetime” became the person with the money.
The general public’s reaction to increasing asking prices was to stop buying. Collectors, who had been ignored by the “if you do not buy it at my price, someone else will” dealers, were back in the buying driver’s seat. They took revenge for this cavalier treatment. Their selective buying contributed little to sustaining the market.
Dealers reduced inventory to weather the crisis. Dealer stock has remained low since that time. Dealer to dealer sales decreased by fifty percent plus.
The recovery from the 1988/1989 economic downturn, a return to the pre-downturn status quo, took less than five years. The 1995 antiques and collectibles market resembled the 1985 market on many fronts, e.g., preservation of existing sales venues and the type of objects offered for sale. Asking prices that had been adjusted downward were rising. Optimism was the order of the day.
As the American Dow Jones Industrial Average continues to approach 10,000 from its low of $6,469.95 in March 2009, it is time to assess the lessons the 2008/2009 economic crisis already has taught the antiques and collectibles trade. The crisis is far from over. When it ends, some lessons may need to be modified or dropped. New lessons may be identified. Ten current lessons to consider follow:
1. Consumer confidence plays a larger role than ever before in the economic viability of the antiques and collectibles marketplace. Antiques and collectibles are once again viewed as a luxury rather than a necessity. When discretionary income decreases or becomes non-existent, luxury sales decrease. Antiques and collectibles no longer sell themselves. Sellers now have to convince individuals to buy them.
2. When individuals save, sales decrease. Money in the bank is not money spent in the field. In addition, more and more individuals are curtailing credit card use. The move to live within one’s means is growing. “Do I really need it?” is becoming a common question, a question that does not bode well for antiques and collectibles.
3. The traditional collector and the categories he/she collected are disappearing. Young collectors are not replacing older collectors in most traditional collecting categories, i.e., those categories found in general antiques and collectibles price guides. Interest in the distant past has lessened. Many young people have no interest in family heirlooms. They do not value them monetarily (forget family value), have no interest in storing them, and see no use for them in their daily lives.
4. The value gap between the high-end and middle and low-end within collecting categories continues to increase. As the investor replaces the collector as the key player in many collecting categories, greater and greater value emphasis is placed on high-end objects. Investors have no interest in middle to low-end material.
5. The volume of middle to low-end material offered for sale has flooded the market. Once collector demands are satisfied, value disappears. Value requires a buyer. Many collectibles, albeit some antiques as well, have reached a point where they have minimal to no value. The list expands daily.
6. The market is global. The Internet expanded the global market for antiques and collectibles exponentially. Foreign markets offered a viable sale alternative during flat American markets. The 2008/2009 economic crisis is global. Many foreign markets, e.g., the Japanese market for antique American phonographs, have disappeared. The American antiques and collectibles market no longer exists in isolation.
7. The sale of antiques and collectibles for decorating and reuse continues to increase. As a result, what runs hot is trendy and volatile. Few collecting categories remain in vogue for longer than six months. When a collecting category loses favor, there is no guarantee interest in it will ever reignite.
8. Affordability, especially for the reuse buyer, once again plays a major role in the buying decision. Antiques and collectibles that are priced cheaper-than-new sell. However, even when prices reflect this, younger individuals prefer to buy new. The antiques and collectibles community faces a major challenge in combating the negative stigma attached to older goods.
9. Prices have fallen, even in the antiques sector, to a level as deep as twenty-five cents on the pre-2008/2009 dollar in some categories. Collectors, dealers, and others are raising the question: “what is a fair price?” They do no like the answer. The general impression is that some objects will never regain their pre-2008/2009 price level and those that do may require a decade or more to achieve this goal.
10. Change is continual. A return to the status quo of 2005 is impossible. The antiques and collectibles trade will emerge from the 2008/2009 economic crisis a far different entity than before. While the degree of change may decrease, it will never cease. Adaptation and adjustment will be continual.
The antiques and collectibles trade no longer controls its destiny. Outside forces, whether Martha Stewart or the world economy, determine our fate. The catch phrase used by the Borg of the Star Trek fictional universe applies: Resistance is futile.
Given the above, why am I optimistic about the future of the antiques and collectibles trade? First, the trade is resilient. It will adapt and adjust. Second, I live in the present and future and not the past. I accept what is. Third, I welcome change and the challenges it presents. I am living through one of the most exciting periods the antiques and collectibles trade has experienced, and I have no intention of dying before I see what happens.
Rinker Enterprises and Harry L. Rinker are on the Internet. Check out www.harryrinker.com.
You can listen and participate in WHATCHA GOT?, Harry’s antiques and collectibles radio call-in show, on Sunday mornings between 8:00 AM and 10:00 AM Eastern Time. If you cannot find it on a station in your area, WHATCHA GOT? streams live and is archived on the Internet at www.gcnlive.com
SELL, KEEP OR TOSS? HOW TO DOWNSIZE A HOME, SETTLE AN ESTATE, AND APPRAISE PERSONAL PROPERTY (House of Collectibles, an imprint of the Random House Information Group, $16.95) is available at your favorite bookstore and via www.harryrinker.com.
Copyright © Rinker Enterprises, Inc. 2009
Rinker On Collectibles: New Lessons – The Impact of the 2008/2009 Economic Crisis
in
Vintage Collectibles
September 10, 2009 - 4:08pm
When did the twenty-first century officially begin—January 1, 2000 or January 1, 2001? The great debate of ten years ago has reached “who cares” status. As a 2000 proponent, I am happy to see the null/naught decade end and the tens decade begin.
As the null/naught decade concludes, the antiques and collectibles trade is once again in survival mode, a far cry from the tentative optimism as the decade began. The trade required five years to adapt to the 1988-1989 economic downturn. The calm was short-lived. EBay’s arrival on Labor Day weekend 1995 caused a seismic eruption whose shockwaves radiated through the trade for almost a decade. As the twenty-first century began, the trade accepted eBay as a long-term player, recognized its positive benefits outweighed its negatives, and incorporated it as part of the industry’s business model.
The antiques and collectibles community enjoyed a buoyant mood as 2008 began. Sellers at antiques malls, shops, shows and flea markets reduced asking prices to the point where they were competitive and even cheaper than eBay. Attendance increased at sale venues. Auction prices were strong. While the number of collectors in many collecting categories continued to decrease, individuals buying for decorating and reuse purposes increased. Antiques and collectibles became part of the environmental movement.
Although a final judgment is ten or more years in the future, the 2008/2009 economic crisis appears to be having a greater impact on the antiques and collectibles trade than any previous event. The trade adapted to eBay in less than a decade. Its adjustment to the 2008/2009 economic crisis will take much longer.
[Author’s Note #1: I was tempted to use recover/recovery rather than adapt/adjustment in the two previous sentences. Since recover and recovery often imply a return to the status quo, I rejected them. The impact of the 2008/2009 economic crisis on the antiques and collectibles trade makes change inevitable. The good news is that the antiques and collectibles trade is resilient, a survivor. It will adapt and adjust. It will exist in 2020, 2050, and beyond. Whether the change required for survival is good, bad, or indifferent remains to be determined.]
A review of the lessons learned from the 1988/1989 economic downturn is necessary to understand the enormous impact of the lessons the 2008/2009 economic crisis is teaching. The general rule prior to the 1988/1989 economic downturn was that when stock values were high, antiques and collectibles values were low. Investors abandoned stocks and bought tangibles during difficult economic times. Antiques, viewed as tangible goods, benefited from this mindset.
[Author’s Note #2: Starting in the mid-1970s the value of antiques began to increase at a rate far in excess of inflation and stock growth. Investors viewed antiques as speculative commodities. When short-term investors sold in the late 1980s, losses far outnumbered gains. This added to the malaise in the antiques and collectibles market at the time.
The collectibles market was still in its infancy in the 1980s. Investors did not view high-end collectibles as a commodity on par with antiques until the late 1990s.]
Stock prices remained strong during the 1988/1989 economic downturn, a surprise to economists as well as those in the antiques and collectibles industry. Anticipated new capital did not flow down into the antiques and collectibles market.
The major lesson learned from the 1988/1989 economic downturn was that an object could price itself out of the market. Sellers assumed there was no limit to an object’s worth. As a result, many transactions were dealer to dealer sales rather than to individuals who removed the objects from the marketplace for a period of time. The answer to “is the winner the person who sells an object and has the money or the person who pays a price he will not recover in his lifetime” became the person with the money.
The general public’s reaction to increasing asking prices was to stop buying. Collectors, who had been ignored by the “if you do not buy it at my price, someone else will” dealers, were back in the buying driver’s seat. They took revenge for this cavalier treatment. Their selective buying contributed little to sustaining the market.
Dealers reduced inventory to weather the crisis. Dealer stock has remained low since that time. Dealer to dealer sales decreased by fifty percent plus.
The recovery from the 1988/1989 economic downturn, a return to the pre-downturn status quo, took less than five years. The 1995 antiques and collectibles market resembled the 1985 market on many fronts, e.g., preservation of existing sales venues and the type of objects offered for sale. Asking prices that had been adjusted downward were rising. Optimism was the order of the day.
As the American Dow Jones Industrial Average continues to approach 10,000 from its low of $6,469.95 in March 2009, it is time to assess the lessons the 2008/2009 economic crisis already has taught the antiques and collectibles trade. The crisis is far from over. When it ends, some lessons may need to be modified or dropped. New lessons may be identified. Ten current lessons to consider follow:
1. Consumer confidence plays a larger role than ever before in the economic viability of the antiques and collectibles marketplace. Antiques and collectibles are once again viewed as a luxury rather than a necessity. When discretionary income decreases or becomes non-existent, luxury sales decrease. Antiques and collectibles no longer sell themselves. Sellers now have to convince individuals to buy them.
2. When individuals save, sales decrease. Money in the bank is not money spent in the field. In addition, more and more individuals are curtailing credit card use. The move to live within one’s means is growing. “Do I really need it?” is becoming a common question, a question that does not bode well for antiques and collectibles.
3. The traditional collector and the categories he/she collected are disappearing. Young collectors are not replacing older collectors in most traditional collecting categories, i.e., those categories found in general antiques and collectibles price guides. Interest in the distant past has lessened. Many young people have no interest in family heirlooms. They do not value them monetarily (forget family value), have no interest in storing them, and see no use for them in their daily lives.
4. The value gap between the high-end and middle and low-end within collecting categories continues to increase. As the investor replaces the collector as the key player in many collecting categories, greater and greater value emphasis is placed on high-end objects. Investors have no interest in middle to low-end material.
5. The volume of middle to low-end material offered for sale has flooded the market. Once collector demands are satisfied, value disappears. Value requires a buyer. Many collectibles, albeit some antiques as well, have reached a point where they have minimal to no value. The list expands daily.
6. The market is global. The Internet expanded the global market for antiques and collectibles exponentially. Foreign markets offered a viable sale alternative during flat American markets. The 2008/2009 economic crisis is global. Many foreign markets, e.g., the Japanese market for antique American phonographs, have disappeared. The American antiques and collectibles market no longer exists in isolation.
7. The sale of antiques and collectibles for decorating and reuse continues to increase. As a result, what runs hot is trendy and volatile. Few collecting categories remain in vogue for longer than six months. When a collecting category loses favor, there is no guarantee interest in it will ever reignite.
8. Affordability, especially for the reuse buyer, once again plays a major role in the buying decision. Antiques and collectibles that are priced cheaper-than-new sell. However, even when prices reflect this, younger individuals prefer to buy new. The antiques and collectibles community faces a major challenge in combating the negative stigma attached to older goods.
9. Prices have fallen, even in the antiques sector, to a level as deep as twenty-five cents on the pre-2008/2009 dollar in some categories. Collectors, dealers, and others are raising the question: “what is a fair price?” They do no like the answer. The general impression is that some objects will never regain their pre-2008/2009 price level and those that do may require a decade or more to achieve this goal.
10. Change is continual. A return to the status quo of 2005 is impossible. The antiques and collectibles trade will emerge from the 2008/2009 economic crisis a far different entity than before. While the degree of change may decrease, it will never cease. Adaptation and adjustment will be continual.
The antiques and collectibles trade no longer controls its destiny. Outside forces, whether Martha Stewart or the world economy, determine our fate. The catch phrase used by the Borg of the Star Trek fictional universe applies: Resistance is futile.
Given the above, why am I optimistic about the future of the antiques and collectibles trade? First, the trade is resilient. It will adapt and adjust. Second, I live in the present and future and not the past. I accept what is. Third, I welcome change and the challenges it presents. I am living through one of the most exciting periods the antiques and collectibles trade has experienced, and I have no intention of dying before I see what happens.
Rinker Enterprises and Harry L. Rinker are on the Internet. Check out www.harryrinker.com.
You can listen and participate in WHATCHA GOT?, Harry’s antiques and collectibles radio call-in show, on Sunday mornings between 8:00 AM and 10:00 AM Eastern Time. If you cannot find it on a station in your area, WHATCHA GOT? streams live and is archived on the Internet at www.gcnlive.com
SELL, KEEP OR TOSS? HOW TO DOWNSIZE A HOME, SETTLE AN ESTATE, AND APPRAISE PERSONAL PROPERTY (House of Collectibles, an imprint of the Random House Information Group, $16.95) is available at your favorite bookstore and via www.harryrinker.com.
Copyright © Rinker Enterprises, Inc. 2009
Friday, September 11, 2009
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
